The Long Build

Bond — Labor

The US labor market the way a macro desk reads it — trends over single prints, revisions over headlines, weekly claims between the monthly reports.

Updated 2026-07-05 08:36 KST · monthly through 2026-06-01 · claims through 2026-06-27 · JOLTS through 2026-05-01 · source: FRED

Official labor data reliability has declined — falling survey response rates now require a ~two-month average for the precision a single month once gave, and October-2025 household-survey data is missing (government shutdown). This monitor is built around trends and revisions, not single prints.

Recession trigger
0.07
current rev. 0.07
Real-time Sahm rule · green <0.30 · amber 0.30–0.49 · red ≥0.50
Payroll trend
+111k/mo ▲
3-mo avg MoM
3-month average of monthly payroll change vs prior 3-month average
Hiring stress
1.81M ▼
continuing claims
Continuing claims, 13-week trend — rising = harder to find work
Core utilization
80.2% ▼
prime-age (25–54) emp-pop
Prime-age employment-population ratio vs 6 months ago — cleanest single gauge
Unemployment
4.2% ▼
U-3 rate
Unemployment rate (U-3) vs 3 months ago

Payrolls

The headline single print is the least reliable element — read the 3-month average and the revisions, not one month.

Latest MoM+57k2026-06-01
3-mo avg+111k/mo
6-mo avg+92k/mo
Private+49k
Government+8k
Temp help+9kleading
Payroll revisions — latest minus first-release MoM
How each month's payroll print was revised (latest − first release). Green = revised up, red = down. January absorbs the BLS annual benchmark and is shown greyed.
Establishment vs household survey payroll change
Establishment (PAYEMS) vs household (CE16OV) employment, MoM change — watch for sign divergence.

Weekly jobless claims

The highest-frequency hard data — the heartbeat between monthly reports.

Initial215k-1k WoW
Initial · 4-wk avg222k
Continuing1.81M-18k 13-wk
Initial and continuing jobless claims
Initial claims (weekly + 4-week average) and continuing claims. In a low-hire market, continuing claims matter most.

JOLTS — tightness

The Fed's labor-tightness gauge. JOLTS lags ~2 months (BLS schedule) — latest is 2026-05-01.

V/U ratio1.04openings ÷ unemployed
Openings7.6M
Quits rate1.9%leads wages
Hires3.3%
Layoffs1.1%
V/U ratio and quits rate
V/U ratio (job openings ÷ unemployed) and the quits rate — falling quits lead falling wage growth.

Wages

AHE · YoY3.5%
AHE · MoM0.35%
ECI · YoY3.4%Fed-preferred · quarterly
Avg weekly hours34.3early-warning
Wage growth — AHE and ECI YoY
Average hourly earnings (YoY) and the Employment Cost Index (YoY, quarterly, higher quality).

All series from FRED, refreshed daily. Tiles are coloured by direction of concern (rising claims/unemployment = red; rising prime-age employment / quits = green). A descriptive monitor, not a forecast or trading signal.