US Liquidity Monitor

As of 2026-07-02

Reserves / Nominal GDP

Bank cash as a share of the economy. 8-11% healthy; nearing 9% is the danger zone (2019 broke there). Last ~2 years.

Reserves/GDP - momentum (13-week change, smoothed)

Direction of the ampleness ratio. Green = liquidity loosening, red = tightening.

Bank Reserves

The raw pool of cash banks hold at the Fed.

Bank Reserves - momentum (13-week change, smoothed)

How fast the pool is growing or shrinking. Green = growing, red = shrinking.

Treasury Account (TGA, $bn)

The government's checking account - money sits here OUT of the system.

TGA - momentum (4-week change, smoothed)

Cash flowing into (red, drained) or out of (green, released) the TGA.

Reverse Repo (RRP, $bn)

Spare cash money funds park overnight - the cushion. Near zero now.

RRP - momentum (4-week change, smoothed)

Cash leaving (green, released) or entering (red, parked) the cushion.

Overnight Rate Corridor

Where the key overnight rates sit between the Fed's floor (RRP) and ceiling (IORB) right now - and what that order implies.

SOFR - IORB Spread

The siren: SOFR above IORB for days = reserves getting scarce. Quarter-end pops are benign.

M2 Money Supply - YoY %

Broadest money growth - watch the direction, not the level.

HY Option-Adjusted Spread

Extra yield risky borrowers pay - a jump confirms real stress.