Dual Momentum AA

monthly rebalance Latest month-end signal: 2026-07-31
1Y Return
16.0%
vs 60/40
+1.4%
1Y Max DD
-10.2%
CAGR
8.4%
Sharpe
0.81

Current Allocation

LQD 33%
GLD 33%
SPY 33%
Category Security Ticker Weight vs prev month-end
Bond iShares iBoxx IG Corp Bond LQD 33.3% 0.0%p
Cash Cash (SHY/T-bills) Cash 0.0% 0.0%p
Equity SPDR S&P 500 SPY 33.3% 0.0%p
Real Asset SPDR Gold Shares GLD 33.3% 0.0%p

Weight change vs previous month-end rebalance (2026-05-31).

Performance vs 60/40

Dual Momentum performance chart

Drawdown

Dual Momentum drawdown chart

Allocation History

Dual Momentum allocation history

Latest month-end signals

Signals are evaluated once a month at month-end; they do not update intraday.

Sleeve Security Asset AAsset BWinnerAbs MomHoldingSignal Date
Equities SPY (22.2%)IDEV (21.0%)SPY22.2%SPY2026-07-31
Bonds AGG (3.8%)LQD (4.1%)LQD4.1%LQD2026-07-31
Real Assets VNQ (12.5%)GLD (20.8%)GLD20.8%GLD2026-07-31

Strategy Details

Gary Antonacci's Dual Momentum strategy combines two types of momentum: relative momentum (which asset is stronger?) and absolute momentum (is the winner even going up?). The portfolio is split into three sleeves — equities, bonds, and real assets. Within each sleeve, the stronger of two assets is selected, but only if its 12-month return is positive. If not, the sleeve defaults to a safe asset. This dual filter avoids holding assets with good relative but bad absolute performance.

Asset Universe

Equities Sleeve
SPY (US equity) vs. IDEV (Int'l developed) → safe: AGG (US bonds)
Bonds Sleeve
AGG (US bonds) vs. LQD (US corp bonds) → safe: SHY (short-term Treasuries)
Real Assets Sleeve
VNQ (REITs) vs. GLD (Gold) → safe: SHY

Scoring Formula

Momentum Score = 12-month total return (skipping the most recent month to avoid reversal noise)

Decision Rules

  1. Split portfolio into 3 equal sleeves (1/3 each): equities, bonds, real assets
  2. Within each sleeve: rank the two risky assets by 12-month return (skip last month)
  3. Relative momentum: pick the winner
  4. Absolute momentum filter: only hold the winner if its 12M return > 0
  5. If absolute momentum fails → hold the sleeve's safe asset
Rebalancing: Monthly, end of month

Source

Gary Antonacci, 'Dual Momentum Investing', 2014 / 'Risk Premia Harvesting Through Dual Momentum' — Paper

Caveats

  • IDEV data starts 2017-03-23, limiting backtest history.

Data: Alpha Vantage (prices), FRED (unemployment). Transaction cost: 5bps/trade. Backtest: 2017-03-31 to 2026-07-01. Generated: 2026-07-02 09:30:54.